Atlanta Braves at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JR RitchiePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Crawford homered to right (357 feet), Garver scored.4–5
- 6Raley homered to right center (388 feet), Arozarena scored and Canzone scored.4–3
- 6Riley homered to left center (427 feet).4–0
- 6Olson homered to center (428 feet).3–0
- 6Albies homered to center (414 feet).2–0
- 1Baldwin homered to center (426 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML ATL +119 / SEA -143
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -129
- ATL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.7 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +6 | ATL: JR Ritchie: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +7 Elo | SEA 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 1st of 3013–4 | Road vs home | 10–1017th of 30 |
| 29th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 5th of 301533 | Elo rating | 15178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–9 | 14–21 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–9 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16–3 | 15–18–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–5 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.