Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jonah HeimBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mateo reached on infield single to second, Heim scored.11–6
- 9Heim doubled to right, White scored and Albies scored.10–6
- 8Moniak homered to right center (438 feet).8–6
- 6Olson doubled to center, Albies scored.8–5
- 6Albies singled to right, Yastrzemski scored.7–5
- 5Tovar hit sacrifice fly to center, Johnston scored.6–5
- 5Heim hit sacrifice fly to left, Olson scored.6–4
- 5Eli White challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Eli White walks. Ozzie Albies scores. Matt Olson to 3rd. Austin Riley to 2nd.5–4
- 5Riley reached on infield single to third, Baldwin scored, Olson to second, Albies to third.4–4
- 4Moniak homered to right (422 feet), McCarthy scored.3–4
- 3Rumfield homered to right center (423 feet).3–2
- 2Mateo homered to left (407 feet).3–1
- 2Heim homered to center (425 feet), Olson scored.2–1
- 1Rumfield singled to center, Julien scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 56%
- ML ATL -143 / COL +119
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.0%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -129
- COL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.3 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | 0 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +85 Elo | ATL 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.2 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3012–4 | Road vs home | 7–821st of 30 |
| 27th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 15115th of 30 |
| 5th of 301531 | Elo rating | 141230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–9 | 20–14 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–9 | — |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders | 15–16–3 | 15–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 16–5 COL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 21.