Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olson homered to right (414 feet).9–1
- 5Riley homered to left center (438 feet), Harris II scored.8–1
- 4Albies hit sacrifice fly to left, White scored.6–1
- 4Baldwin doubled to right, Mateo scored, White to third.5–1
- 4White reached on bunt single to first, Riley scored, Mateo to second.4–1
- 3Beck doubled to left, Karros scored, Beck to third.3–1
- 2Baldwin singled to center, Mateo scored.3–0
- 1Baldwin homered to left (384 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML ATL -219 / COL +179
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 66.8%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -192
- COL +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.5 – 4.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | −5 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.99 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Brennan Bernardino: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +121 Elo | ATL 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 68.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 1st of 3011–4 | Road vs home | 7–718th of 30 |
| 27th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15115th of 30 |
| 5th of 301529 | Elo rating | 141430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–9 | 20–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–9 | — |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 14–16–3 | 14–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 15–5 COL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 20.