Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harris II homered to right (385 feet), Farmer scored.8–6
- 8Riley hit sacrifice fly to right, Dubón scored.6–6
- 8Dubón tripled to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Albies scored and Olson scored.5–6
- 7Heim grounded out to second, Riley scored.2–6
- 4Olson homered to right (415 feet).1–6
- 2Moniak homered to right center (439 feet).0–6
- 1Castro grounded out to first, Rumfield scored. Freeman scored, Johnston safe at third on throwing error by first baseman Olson.0–5
- 1Freeman reached on bunt single to first, Goodman scored, Rumfield to second.0–3
- 1Rumfield singled to center, Moniak scored, Goodman to third.0–2
- 1Goodman hit a ground rule double, Julien scored, Moniak to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML ATL -171 / COL +141
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.9%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -152
- COL +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 6.0 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +5 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +85 Elo | ATL 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 64.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–4 | Road vs home | 7–616th of 30 |
| 24th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15115th of 30 |
| 5th of 301528 | Elo rating | 141630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–9 | 20–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–9 | — |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16–3 | 13–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 14–5 COL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.