Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thomas singled to center, Perez scored.7–6
- 7Rodríguez homered to center (416 feet), Crawford scored.6–6
- 6Arozarena homered to right (359 feet).6–4
- 6Caglianone homered to right (347 feet).6–3
- 6Pasquantino homered to right (404 feet).5–3
- 5Joe homered to left (398 feet).4–3
- 1Rodríguez homered to left (402 feet), Crawford scored.4–2
- 1Collins doubled to left, Perez scored.4–0
- 1Perez doubled to left, Pasquantino scored and Witt Jr. scored.3–0
- 1Pasquantino singled to right, Garcia scored. Witt Jr. safe at third, Pasquantino safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Joe.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML KC +113 / SEA -136
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -123
- KC +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.3 – 3.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +5 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +57 Elo | SEA 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 30th of 303–12 | Road vs home | 10–78th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 15217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–16 | 14–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–17–1 | 14–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 7–13 SEA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.