Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Clemens singled to center, Outman scored and Jeffers scored.4–11
- 8Jeffers singled to center, Lee scored, Outman to third.4–9
- 8Raleigh homered to right (396 feet), Refsnyder scored.4–8
- 6Larnach reached on infield single to second, Gray scored, Lee to third.2–8
- 5Young hit sacrifice fly to third, Crawford scored, Garver to second.2–7
- 5Garver singled to left, Arozarena scored, Crawford to third.1–7
- 4Buxton homered to left (396 feet), Gray scored.0–7
- 3Clemens homered to right (379 feet), Bell scored and Jeffers scored.0–5
- 3Jeffers singled to right, Larnach scored, Bell to second.0–2
- 2Keaschall doubled to right, Bell scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML SEA -122 / MIN +102
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.8%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -111
- MIN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +9 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +13 Elo | SEA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–8 | Road vs home | 7–614th of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 7th of 301520 | Elo rating | 147426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–17 | 14–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16 | 15–12–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 10–11 MIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.