Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rays- Jake FraleyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lewis singled to center, Keaschall scored.1–6
- 8Williamson doubled to left, Díaz scored.0–6
- 7Palacios hit sacrifice fly to center, Mullins scored.0–5
- 7Fortes singled to left, Williamson scored, Mullins to third.0–4
- 7Williamson tripled to center, DeLuca scored.0–3
- 4Fraley homered to right center (401 feet), Díaz scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML MIN +113 / TB -136
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- TB: Elo 57.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- MIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +6 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +52 Elo | TB 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.910th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 6–411th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 26th of 301477 | Elo rating | 149916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–12 | 15–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 15–10–1 | 16–7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–15 TB in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 23.