Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lewis homered to left (390 feet).2–6
- 7Caminero homered to center (435 feet), Simpson scored.1–6
- 6Aranda homered to right (414 feet).1–4
- 5Lee homered to right (383 feet).1–3
- 4Aranda homered to right (402 feet).0–3
- 3Simpson grounded out to first, Fortes scored.0–2
- 1Caminero homered to center (450 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 56%
- ML MIN +119 / TB -143
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- TB: Elo 53.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -129
- MIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.5 – 4.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −8 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +26 Elo | TB 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 5–414th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150611th of 30 |
| 26th of 301480 | Elo rating | 149716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–11 | 14–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–10–1 | 15–7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–14 TB in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.