Kansas City Royals at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting3-5
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Witt Jr. homered to right center (389 feet), Loftin scored and Isbel scored.4–1
- 6Perez homered to center (425 feet).1–1
- 2Wilson singled to center, Gelof scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 50%
- ML KC -110 / ATH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- ATH: Elo 50.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ATH -100
- KC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.8 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −8 | KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +4 Elo | ATH 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.315th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–10 | Road vs home | 5–519th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15089th of 30 |
| 17th of 301494 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–14 | 17–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 16–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 14–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 8–10 ATH in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.
