Kansas City Royals at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Massey hit sacrifice fly to center, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to third.2–5
- 6Kurtz doubled to center, Hernaiz scored.1–5
- 4Butler homered to right center (404 feet), Wilson scored and McNeil scored.1–4
- 2McNeil doubled to right, Wilson scored.1–1
- 1Perez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Witt Jr. scored, Jensen out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 52%
- ML KC +100 / ATH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- ATH: Elo 51.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATH -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.7 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +2 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +12 Elo | ATH 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 5–624th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15087th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–14 | 17–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 16–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16 | 14–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 9–10 ATH in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.