Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raleigh hit sacrifice fly to center, Young scored, Wilson to third.5–3
- 9Young singled to center, Arozarena scored and Rivas scored.4–3
- 8Caratini singled to left, Outman scored.2–3
- 7Young doubled to center, Canzone scored.2–2
- 4Lee singled to right, Clemens scored and Jeffers scored, Keaschall to second.1–2
- 3Crawford homered to right (374 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML SEA -136 / MIN +113
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -123
- MIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −1 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +35 Elo | SEA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 20th of 305–9 | Road vs home | 8–716th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 30 |
| 7th of 301520 | Elo rating | 147426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–18 | 15–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 14–16–1 | 16–12–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 11–12 MIN in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.