Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodríguez doubled to left, Rivas scored and Young scored.7–1
- 8Naylor homered to right (390 feet), Crawford scored and Rodríguez scored.5–1
- 7Young singled to left, Arozarena scored.2–1
- 6Naylor singled to left, Rodríguez scored.1–1
- 5Buxton homered to left (389 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML SEA -126 / MIN +104
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 3.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −6 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +30 Elo | SEA 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.28th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 24th of 304–9 | Road vs home | 8–611th of 30 |
| 15th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 7th of 301517 | Elo rating | 147726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–18 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 14–16 | 16–12–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 10–12 MIN in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.