Kansas City Royals at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Darell HernaizBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Díaz homered to right (373 feet).3–6
- 7Hernaiz reached on infield single to shortstop, Langeliers scored, McNeil to second.2–6
- 2Hernaiz reached on infield single to second, Kurtz scored on error, Hernaiz safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Loftin.2–5
- 2Kurtz doubled to center, Langeliers scored and Wilson scored.2–4
- 2Langeliers doubled to left, Butler scored, Wilson to third.2–2
- 2Garcia homered to left center (395 feet).2–1
- 1Hernaiz reached on infield single to shortstop, Wilson scored, Thomas to second, Langeliers to third.1–1
- 1Marte singled to right, Garcia scored, Loftin to second, Perez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 53%
- ML KC +104 / ATH -126
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- ATH: Elo 53.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATH -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 4.6 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +7 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +23 Elo | ATH 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–11 | Road vs home | 6–618th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 30 |
| 17th of 301494 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–15 | 18–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 16–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–17 | 14–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 9–11 ATH in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.