Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4
- Emerson HancockPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 14 K
Scoring summary
- 10Garcia hit sacrifice fly to center, Massey scored.3–2
- 9Caglianone singled to center, Thomas scored on error, Caglianone safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Rodríguez.2–2
- 5Rivas scored on Lugo wild pitch, Rodríguez to second on wild pitch by Lugo, Crawford to third on wild pitch by Lugo.1–2
- 5Rivas scored on Lugo wild pitch, Rodríguez to second on wild pitch by Lugo, Crawford to third on wild pitch by Lugo.1–2
- 3Garcia doubled to left, Isbel scored.1–1
- 1Naylor singled to center, Rodríguez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML KC +119 / SEA -143
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -129
- KC +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −8 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +40 Elo | SEA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 304–12 | Road vs home | 10–811th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Elo rating | 15207th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–16 | 14–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–17–1 | 15–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 8–13 SEA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.