Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Isaac CollinsBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Collins doubled to center, Caglianone scored.4–1
- 4Collins hit sacrifice fly to center, Perez scored.3–1
- 4Caglianone grounded into fielder's choice to first, Pasquantino scored, Jensen out at second, Perez to third.2–1
- 4Jensen walked, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to second, Pasquantino to third.1–1
- 3Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rivas scored, Rodríguez out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML KC -105 / SEA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −14 | KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +23 Elo | SEA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–12 | Road vs home | 10–916th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15198th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–16 | 14–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–18–1 | 15–17–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 9–13 SEA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.