Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Kyle TuckerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Astros- Zach ColeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeissPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Cole homered to right (390 feet).8–3
- 5Freeman singled to center, Freeland scored, Ohtani to third.8–2
- 3Freeman singled to center, Kim scored on error and Ohtani scored on fielding error by right fielder Smith, Freeman to second.7–2
- 3Ohtani grounded into fielder's choice to third, Pages scored, Freeland out at second, Kim to third.5–2
- 3Tucker homered to right center (376 feet).4–2
- 2Smith doubled to left, Ohtani scored.3–2
- 2Freeland homered to left center (362 feet).2–2
- 1Paredes scored on Yamamoto wild pitch, Altuve to second on wild pitch by Yamamoto.1–2
- 1Paredes scored on Yamamoto wild pitch, Altuve to second on wild pitch by Yamamoto.1–2
- 1Altuve singled to right, Alvarez scored, Paredes to third.1–1
- 1Tucker reached on infield single to shortstop, Smith scored, T. Hernández to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -199 / HOU +163
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.3%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -175
- HOU +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 3.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +14 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Steven Okert: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +58 Elo | LAD 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.18th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.9 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 7th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 8–817th of 30 |
| 25th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 148428th of 30 |
| 1st of 301563 | Elo rating | 149120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–18 | 14–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–18 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | — | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 14–19–1 | 23–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 3–6 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.