Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Cam SmithBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- AJ BlubaughPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Smith singled to left, Altuve scored and Shewmake scored, Matthews thrown out at home.3–1
- 6Matthews sacrificed into double play, left to catcher to third, Walker scored, Altuve thrown out at third.1–1
- 5Duran homered to right (376 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 62%
- ML HOU +149 / BOS -181
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -160
- HOU +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.7 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +9 | HOU: Cody Bolton: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +54 Elo | BOS 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–13 | Road vs home | 6–928th of 30 |
| 28th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 15078th of 30 |
| 20th of 301489 | Elo rating | 151012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–21 | 11–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–10–1 | 16–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 15–9 BOS in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 24.