Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Valenzuela homered to center.1–8
- 5Straw hit sacrifice fly to right, Varsho scored.1–7
- 5Springer singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Varsho to third.1–6
- 4Clement homered to left (360 feet), Valenzuela scored.1–5
- 3Pinango singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Varsho to second, Okamoto thrown out at home.1–3
- 3Okamoto singled to left, Sánchez scored and Valenzuela scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–2
- 1Contreras homered to left (406 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML BOS -108 / TOR -112
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.1%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -102
- BOS +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +1 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +36 Elo | TOR 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.929th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 9–817th of 30 |
| 9th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149125th of 30 |
| 9th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–20 | 12–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 6–11 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 15–15 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 21–20 TOR in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 41.