Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- David FryBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Manzardo doubled to left, Hoskins scored, Valera to third.3–5
- 7Okamoto walked, Straw scored, Guerrero Jr. to second, Clement to third.2–5
- 7Fry homered to left (359 feet).2–4
- 6Giménez doubled to left, Okamoto scored and Varsho scored.1–4
- 6Varsho grounded into fielder's choice to second, Guerrero Jr. scored on fielding error by second baseman Brito, Okamoto third.1–2
- 4Okamoto homered to center (425 feet).1–1
- 3Rocchio grounded out to shortstop, Brito scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML CLE +123 / TOR -149
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -133
- CLE +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.2 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +9 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +28 Elo | TOR 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.128th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 6–723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 148826th of 30 |
| 9th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15158th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–12 | 9–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–13 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 12–8 TOR in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.