Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching2.1 IP, 7 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 6Giménez doubled to left, Okamoto scored and Sosa scored.8–6
- 6DeLauter grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rocchio scored, Schneemann third.8–4
- 5Clement doubled to left, Schneider scored.7–4
- 3Martínez homered to right center (398 feet), Hoskins scored.7–3
- 2Okamoto homered to center (430 feet).5–3
- 1Sánchez homered to center (422 feet).5–2
- 1Guerrero Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Schneider scored.5–1
- 1Martínez homered to right center (388 feet), Valera scored.5–0
- 1Valera doubled to right, Hoskins scored and Ramírez scored.3–0
- 1Schneemann homered to right (366 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -121 / TOR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.5%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -110
- TOR +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 3.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −23 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 1.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +11 Elo | CLE 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 17th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 6–621st of 30 |
| 4th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 148725th of 30 |
| 10th of 301511 | Elo rating | 15178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–12 | 9–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–13 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 11–8 TOR in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.