Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Jesus SanchezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Sánchez homered to right (355 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.2–4
- 5Martínez doubled to left, Hedges scored.2–2
- 5Rocchio singled to center, Brito scored, Hedges to second.1–2
- 1Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to left, Varsho scored.0–2
- 1Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Clement scored, Varsho to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML CLE +104 / TOR -126
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | +2 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 1.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +51 Elo | TOR 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 7–718th of 30 |
| 4th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 148828th of 30 |
| 11th of 301511 | Elo rating | 15178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–13 | 10–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 15–13 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 12–9 TOR in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.