Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Carlos NarvaezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-1
- Dylan CeasePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Narváez homered to left center (388 feet).5–0
- 6Durbin singled to left, Mayer scored.4–0
- 5Abreu doubled to right, Contreras scored, Anthony to third.3–0
- 5Anthony reached on infield single to first, Duran scored, Contreras to third.2–0
- 4Mayer singled to center, Contreras scored, Abreu to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML BOS +113 / TOR -136
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- BOS +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.3 – 3.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +11 | BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +33 Elo | TOR 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 20th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 8–716th of 30 |
| 9th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 148927th of 30 |
| 9th of 301512 | Elo rating | 15188th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–19 | 11–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 15–13 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 20–19 TOR in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 39.