Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting1-4
- Payton TollePitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-3, 1 RBI
- Trey YesavagePitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Straw scored, Clement to second.0–3
- 3Okamoto singled to left, Giménez scored and Guerrero Jr. scored, Okamoto out stretching at second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML BOS -105 / TOR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +3 | BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +33 Elo | TOR 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 8–818th of 30 |
| 8th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149024th of 30 |
| 8th of 301515 | Elo rating | 15159th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–19 | 11–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 15–14 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 21–19 TOR in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 40.