Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Connelly EarlyPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Story singled to left, Anthony scored, Abreu to second.6–3
- 7Abreu singled to right, Contreras scored, Anthony to third.6–2
- 5Contreras hit sacrifice fly to center, Wong scored.6–1
- 5Walker homered to left (388 feet).6–0
- 4Correa singled to right, Smith scored.5–0
- 4Matthews homered to center (406 feet), Walker scored and Altuve scored.4–0
- 1Walker singled to left, Correa scored, Paredes to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML HOU +117 / BOS -141
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.6%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -127
- HOU +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +10 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Connelly Early: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +46 Elo | BOS 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 304–13 | Road vs home | 6–827th of 30 |
| 28th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 15078th of 30 |
| 21st of 301486 | Elo rating | 151212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–21 | 11–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–10 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 14–9 BOS in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 23.