Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Carlos CorreaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 3Duran homered to right center (407 feet), Narváez scored and Durbin scored.1–3
- 3Correa homered to left center (359 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML HOU +102 / BOS -122
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.5%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -111
- HOU +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | HOU: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Jake Bennett (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +38 Elo | BOS 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 29th of 304–12 | Road vs home | 5–828th of 30 |
| 29th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 15087th of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Elo rating | 151111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–20 | 10–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–9 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 14–8 BOS in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 22.