Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pages homered to left center (397 feet), Call scored.7–2
- 8Baldwin singled to right, Mateo scored, Dubón to third.7–0
- 5Harris II doubled to right, Riley scored.6–0
- 2Olson singled to center, Baldwin scored and Albies scored.5–0
- 2Albies singled to left, Mateo scored and White scored, Baldwin to second.3–0
- 1Riley grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Dubón scored, Albies out at second, Baldwin to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML ATL +153 / LAD -186
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.0%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -165
- ATL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +5 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +78 Elo | LAD 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.0 | Margin | +2.11st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3014–7 | Road vs home | 13–64th of 30 |
| 28th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 148926th of 30 |
| 5th of 301530 | Elo rating | 15681st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–11 | 19–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–9 | 19–19 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 17–19–3 | 16–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 7–14 LAD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.