Atlanta Braves at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-4
- Martin PerezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Young doubled to right, Naylor scored.1–3
- 8Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Yastrzemski scored.1–2
- 6Rodríguez homered to center (436 feet).0–2
- 3Raleigh grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Pereda scored, Crawford out at second, Rivas to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML ATL +117 / SEA -141
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.4%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -127
- ATL +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.7 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +2 | ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +3 Elo | SEA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.2 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3014–5 | Road vs home | 11–1116th of 30 |
| 28th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 5th of 301533 | Elo rating | 15178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–9 | 14–23 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–9 | 11–20 |
| Underdog | 10–0 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–17–3 | 16–19–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–6 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.