Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting4-4
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Freeman homered to center (413 feet).1–3
- 5Ohtani singled to right, Rojas scored.1–2
- 2Tucker doubled to right, T. Hernández scored.1–1
- 2Riley singled to center, Harris II scored, Smith to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 50%
- ML ATL -110 / LAD -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 4.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −4 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 1.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +28 Elo | LAD 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.35th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.1 | Margin | +2.11st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3014–6 | Road vs home | 12–64th of 30 |
| 28th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 148927th of 30 |
| 5th of 301532 | Elo rating | 15671st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–10 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–9 | 18–19 |
| Underdog | 10–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 17–18–3 | 16–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 7–13 LAD in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.