Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting3-4
- Shohei OhtaniPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Astros- Braden ShewmakeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tucker singled to right, Call scored.1–2
- 3Shewmake homered to left (337 feet).0–2
- 2Walker homered to left (395 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML LAD -227 / HOU +184
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.6%, market 66.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -197
- HOU +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.0 – 3.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −9 | LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +75 Elo | LAD 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.9 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 8–922nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 148727th of 30 |
| 1st of 301565 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–18 | 14–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–18 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | — | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders | 15–19–1 | 24–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–6 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.