Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Braves- Mauricio DubonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JR RitchiePitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Dubón homered to left (383 feet), Yastrzemski scored.1–4
- 8Yastrzemski doubled to center, Harris II scored, Kim thrown out at home.1–2
- 5Hoerner singled to left, Kelly scored, Swanson to second.1–1
- 4Baldwin homered to center (402 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML CHC -130 / ATL +108
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 48.7%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -118
- ATL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 4.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: JR Ritchie: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +9 Elo | ATL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +2.11st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 13–64th of 30 |
| 13th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149324th of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 15395th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–23 | 31–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 19–9 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 12–2 |
| Overs–unders | 22–16–4 | 18–21–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 8–11 ATL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.