Chicago Cubs at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Evan CarterBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carter homered to right (353 feet), Jung scored.0–3
- 4Cubs challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Alejandro Osuna reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Michael Busch. Josh Jung scores. Joc Pederson to 3rd.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML CHC +102 / TEX -123
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 46.1%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- TEX -111
- CHC +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.6 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +7 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +27 Elo | CHC 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 10th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 8–924th of 30 |
| 13th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15161st of 30 |
| 4th of 301548 | Elo rating | 150713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–21 | 18–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 22–14–4 | 15–22–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 6–5 TEX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.