Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Chourio homered to left center (400 feet).2–1
- 4Rengifo grounded into fielder's choice to third, Turang scored on fielding error by third baseman Lewis, Vaughn to second.1–1
- 3Larnach homered to right (363 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML MIL -132 / MIN +109
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −4 | MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +72 Elo | MIL 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 12–1219th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301552 | Elo rating | 147326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–17 | 21–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–13 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 20–21–1 | 25–16–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 10–5 MIN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.