Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kendry RojasPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8DeLauter grounded out to first, Fry scored, Rocchio to third.5–4
- 6DeLauter singled to center, Rocchio scored.5–3
- 5Martínez singled to right, Manzardo scored, Schneemann to third.5–2
- 5Martin singled to center, Buxton scored, Bell to second.5–1
- 5Bell singled to center, Lewis scored, Buxton to third.4–1
- 5Lewis doubled to left, Lee scored.3–1
- 5Lee singled to center, Clemens scored.2–1
- 3Ramírez singled to center, Rocchio scored, DeLauter to third.1–1
- 3Clemens scored on Williams wild pitch, Lee to second on wild pitch by Williams.1–0
- 3Clemens scored on Williams wild pitch, Lee to second on wild pitch by Williams.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML MIN +135 / CLE -163
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -146
- MIN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +9 | MIN: Andrew Morris (no track record yet) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +62 Elo | CLE 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.112th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–13 | Road vs home | 10–810th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15095th of 30 |
| 26th of 301470 | Elo rating | 151111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–22 | 21–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 16–14 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 22–14–4 | 20–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 14–27 CLE in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 41.