Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thomas hit sacrifice fly to left, Collins scored.8–5
- 7Pasquantino homered to right center (414 feet).8–4
- 7Witt Jr. homered to right center (407 feet).8–3
- 7Naylor homered to right (393 feet), Bazzana scored and Rocchio scored.8–2
- 6Loftin hit sacrifice fly to center, Jensen scored.5–2
- 6Halpin scored on a passed ball by Jensen.5–1
- 6Halpin scored on a passed ball by Jensen.5–1
- 5Garcia singled to right, Massey scored.4–1
- 3Halpin singled to center, Schneemann scored, Rocchio to second.4–0
- 1Schneemann singled to right, Manzardo scored.3–0
- 1Manzardo doubled to center, Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML CLE +104 / KC -126
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- KC: Elo 54.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.6 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −1 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 1.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +29 Elo | KC 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 13th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 14th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 11–88th of 30 |
| 5th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 150118th of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Elo rating | 149916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–19 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–20 | 15–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 23–22 KC in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 45.