Cleveland Guardians at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kwan grounded into double play, third to shortstop to first, Hedges scored, Rocchio out at second.14–6
- 9Rocchio singled to center, Bazzana scored, Hedges to third.13–6
- 8Kurtz singled to right, Cortes scored, Butler to second, McNeil to third.12–6
- 8Manzardo homered to right center (389 feet), Rocchio scored and Kwan scored.12–5
- 7Bazzana singled to center, DeLauter scored and Hoskins scored, Halpin to third.9–5
- 7Fry walked, Kwan scored, DeLauter to second, Hoskins to third.7–5
- 6McNeil hit sacrifice fly to right, Cortes scored, Wilson to third.6–5
- 6Fry homered to left (364 feet).6–4
- 5Langeliers homered to left center (433 feet).5–4
- 5Hoskins hit sacrifice fly to center, Ramírez scored.5–3
- 5Ramírez doubled to center, Martínez scored and Kwan scored.4–3
- 5Kwan singled to left, Hedges scored.2–3
- 4McNeil singled to left, Rooker scored, Wilson to second.1–3
- 3Hedges homered to left center (381 feet).1–2
- 1Langeliers homered to center (398 feet), Kurtz scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 55%
- ML CLE +115 / ATH -138
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- ATH: Elo 51.5%, market 55.5%
- Fair odds
- ATH -125
- CLE +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.0 – 5.5 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −5 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 1.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +11 Elo | ATH 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 55.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 7–716th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15087th of 30 |
| 12th of 301511 | Elo rating | 148721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–16 | 19–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 16–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–17 | 15–15–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 16–4 ATH in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 20.