Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Chandler SimpsonBatting2-4
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Fraley grounded into fielder's choice to second, Díaz scored on error, Fraley second.1–3
- 5DeLauter singled to center, Rocchio scored and Kwan scored.0–3
- 3Manzardo hit sacrifice fly to left, Rocchio scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML TB -101 / CLE -119
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.6%, market 52.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -108
- TB +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 3.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +8 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +32 Elo | CLE 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 7th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 8–715th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15133rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 150813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–10 | 15–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–11–2 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 11–11 CLE in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.