Cleveland Guardians at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Rhys HoskinsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rooker singled to left, Wilson scored, Kurtz to second, Langeliers to third.8–5
- 7Rocchio doubled to left, Naylor scored.8–4
- 7Naylor doubled to right, Bazzana scored.7–4
- 7Hoskins homered to left (376 feet).6–4
- 5Martínez hit sacrifice fly to right, Manzardo scored.5–4
- 5Hoskins doubled to right, Kwan scored and DeLauter scored, Manzardo to third.4–4
- 4Gelof singled to left, Hernaiz scored and Soderstrom scored.2–4
- 2DeLauter doubled to right, Bazzana scored and Naylor scored.2–2
- 1Rooker homered to left center (422 feet), Langeliers scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -118 / ATH -102
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 49.4%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -107
- ATH +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.8 – 4.7 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +4 Elo | ATH 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 14th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 7–616th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15079th of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Elo rating | 149021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–16 | 19–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 16–5 |
| Overs–unders | 15–17 | 14–15–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 15–4 ATH in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.