Cleveland Guardians at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6McNeil doubled to right, Gelof scored, Wynns scored and Soderstrom scored.1–7
- 5Rooker reached on infield single to shortstop, Hernaiz scored, Wilson to second.1–4
- 5Soderstrom homered to right center (379 feet).1–3
- 5Gelof homered to left (429 feet).1–2
- 5DeLauter homered to left (356 feet).1–1
- 2Thomas homered to left center (400 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML CLE -126 / ATH +104
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- ATH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.6 – 4.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −7 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATH: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +32 Elo | CLE 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 7–821st of 30 |
| 5th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15087th of 30 |
| 9th of 301515 | Elo rating | 148423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–16 | 19–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 16–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–17 | 16–15–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 17–4 ATH in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 21.