Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Royals- Isaac CollinsBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Collins homered to right center (382 feet).3–5
- 4Massey homered to right (392 feet), Collins scored.3–4
- 4Hoskins homered to left (343 feet), Ramírez scored and Manzardo scored.3–2
- 1Perez singled to center, Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -118 / KC -102
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 48.7%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -107
- KC +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +12 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +9 Elo | KC 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 10–78th of 30 |
| 5th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Elo rating | 149916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–18 | 19–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–19 | 14–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 22–21 KC in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 43.