Minnesota Twins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Nationals- Curtis MeadBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee doubled to left, Clemens scored, Keaschall to third.11–3
- 8Buxton homered to left (387 feet), Lee scored and Lewis scored.10–3
- 7Wood doubled to left, Tena scored.7–3
- 7Bell singled to right, Jeffers scored.7–2
- 5Mead singled to left, Lile scored.6–2
- 4Larnach doubled to center, Keaschall scored and Lee scored.6–1
- 4Lewis hit sacrifice fly to right, Clemens scored, Keaschall to third.4–1
- 4Lee grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Martin scored on fielding error by pitcher Cavalli, Keaschall to second, Clemens to third.3–1
- 2Lee doubled to right, Keaschall scored and Clemens scored.2–1
- 1Abrams grounded into fielder's choice to second, Lile scored, Mead third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML MIN -118 / WSH -102
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.6%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -107
- WSH +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.8 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −11 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +11 Elo | MIN 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.628th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 305–10 | Road vs home | 4–1230th of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15152nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301472 | Elo rating | 145428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–19 | 19–16 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 18–13–4 | 21–11–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3–3 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–5 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.