Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Jeffers hit sacrifice fly to center, Lee scored, Buxton to third.7–3
- 7Pinango singled to center, Okamoto scored.7–2
- 5Okamoto homered to left (374 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.6–2
- 4Pinango singled to center, Sosa scored, Pinango to second.4–2
- 4Okamoto homered to left (390 feet).3–2
- 3Buxton homered to left (364 feet), Lee scored.2–2
- 2Pinango grounded into fielder's choice to first, Varsho scored, Sosa scored, Pinango to second on throwing error by first baseman Bell.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 50%
- ML TOR -110 / MIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +2 | TOR: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +22 Elo | TOR 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 26th of 304–9 | Road vs home | 9–818th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 8th of 301516 | Elo rating | 147626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–18 | 16–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 15–15–1 | 16–12–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 10–14 MIN in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 24.