Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Keaschall hit sacrifice fly to left, Bell scored.1–7
- 8Bell singled to left, Buxton scored on error and Jeffers scored on throwing error by shortstop Giménez.1–6
- 6Martin singled to center, Larnach scored.1–4
- 6Buxton homered to left center (375 feet).1–3
- 4Jeffers homered to left center (404 feet), Larnach scored.1–2
- 4Varsho homered to right (397 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML TOR -130 / MIN +108
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.2%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -118
- MIN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −7 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +43 Elo | TOR 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–8 | Road vs home | 8–818th of 30 |
| 24th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 8th of 301520 | Elo rating | 147326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–17 | 15–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–11 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 15–15 | 16–12–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 10–13 MIN in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.