Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trey YesavagePitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Twins- Luke KeaschallBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew MorrisPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Okamoto homered to left center (401 feet), Straw scored.3–4
- 6Varsho reached on bunt single to first, Guerrero Jr. scored, Sánchez to second.1–4
- 5Wallner doubled to left, Clemens scored.0–4
- 5Clemens doubled to center, Keaschall scored.0–3
- 5Keaschall doubled to center, Caratini scored.0–2
- 1Caratini singled to right, Larnach scored, Martin to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML TOR -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 43.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −8 | TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +48 Elo | TOR 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 17th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 9–1020th of 30 |
| 24th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 150511th of 30 |
| 6th of 301521 | Elo rating | 147126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–18 | 16–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 17–15–1 | 18–12–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 12–14 MIN in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 26.