Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Valenzuela homered to center (412 feet), Straw scored and Schneider scored.11–4
- 8Schneider doubled to left, Sosa scored and Varsho scored, Straw to third.8–4
- 8Straw walked, Okamoto scored, Varsho to second, Sosa to third.6–4
- 8Sosa reached on infield single to second, Guerrero Jr. scored, Okamoto to second.5–4
- 8Okamoto singled to center, Clement scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.4–4
- 6Okamoto homered to center (453 feet).3–4
- 5Larnach singled to center, Gray scored.2–4
- 2Lee reached on infield single to first, Clemens scored on error and Keaschall scored on throwing error by first baseman Guerrero Jr..2–3
- 2Straw homered to left (392 feet).2–1
- 2Sosa homered to left center (415 feet).1–1
- 1Buxton homered to right (363 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 56%
- ML TOR -143 / MIN +119
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -129
- MIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 3.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +10 | TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +23 Elo | TOR 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305–9 | Road vs home | 9–916th of 30 |
| 24th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 8th of 301518 | Elo rating | 147426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–18 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15–1 | 17–12–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–14 MIN in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 25.