Minnesota Twins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tena homered to center (403 feet).2–15
- 8Abrams homered to right center (403 feet), Wood scored, Lile scored and Mead scored.2–14
- 8Wood singled to right, Young scored and Millas scored.2–10
- 7House homered to center (425 feet), Lile scored.2–8
- 6Nuñez tripled to right, Tena scored.2–6
- 6Tena doubled to center, House scored.2–5
- 6House doubled to left, Abrams scored.2–4
- 5Millas homered to center (398 feet), Young scored.2–3
- 5Wallner homered to center (420 feet).2–1
- 4Abrams doubled to center, Wood scored, Mead to third.1–1
- 3Wallner singled to right, Keaschall scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -126 / WSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.0%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.9 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −2 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +7 Elo | MIN 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 306–10 | Road vs home | 4–1330th of 30 |
| 13th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301476 | Elo rating | 145129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–19 | 19–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 19–13–4 | 22–11–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3–3 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–5 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.