Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 11Buxton doubled to center, Wallner scored.2–1
- 4Manzardo singled to right, Ramírez scored.1–1
- 1Buxton homered to left (378 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML MIN +105 / CLE -127
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.7%, market 53.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -115
- MIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −4 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +61 Elo | CLE 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–13 | Road vs home | 10–78th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15104th of 30 |
| 26th of 301469 | Elo rating | 151312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–22 | 21–19 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 22–13–4 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–1–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 13–27 CLE in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 40.