Minnesota Twins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mead singled to right, Wood scored, Lile to second.5–7
- 7Ruiz homered to right (353 feet).5–6
- 7Bell doubled to left, Jeffers scored.5–5
- 6Jeffers homered to left (432 feet).4–5
- 5Mead hit into fielder's choice to right, Ruiz scored, Lile out at second, Wood to third.3–5
- 5Ruiz doubled to right, Young scored and Tena scored.3–4
- 5Gray reached on infield single to second, Lee scored, Gray to second.3–2
- 3Nuñez hit sacrifice fly to center, Ruiz scored.2–2
- 3Ruiz doubled to right, Young scored, Ruiz to third.2–1
- 2Lee singled to left, Jeffers scored and Keaschall scored, Clemens to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 53%
- ML MIN +104 / WSH -126
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 50.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.6 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −2 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +1 Elo | WSH 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 23rd of 306–11 | Road vs home | 5–1330th of 30 |
| 15th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15133rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301471 | Elo rating | 145528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–20 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 20–13–4 | 23–11–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–6 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.