Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Travis BazzanaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jeffers grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Buxton scored, Martin out at second.4–6
- 8Hedges reached on infield single to second, Bazzana scored, Rocchio to third.3–6
- 7Ramírez singled to left, Kwan scored.3–5
- 7Buxton homered to left center (400 feet), Lewis scored.3–4
- 6Jeffers singled to right, Martin scored.1–4
- 1Bazzana homered to center (427 feet), Ramírez scored.0–4
- 1Hoskins hit sacrifice fly to right, Martínez scored.0–2
- 1Kwan scored on error, Ramírez safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Keaschall, Martínez safe at third on error.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML MIN +123 / CLE -149
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 60.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -133
- MIN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.4 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +6 | MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +71 Elo | CLE 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.112th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 306–12 | Road vs home | 9–78th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15113rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301470 | Elo rating | 151112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–21 | 20–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 15–13 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 21–13–4 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–1–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 13–26 CLE in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 39.