Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Owen CaissieBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Clemens homered to right center (419 feet).9–5
- 6Hicks grounded into fielder's choice to second, Edwards scored.9–4
- 5Bell doubled to right, Lee scored and Martin scored.8–4
- 4Hicks singled to center, Mack scored and Edwards scored.8–2
- 4Edwards doubled to left, Caissie scored, Mack to third.6–2
- 4Mack singled to center, Jiménez scored, Caissie to third.5–2
- 3Buxton homered to left center (418 feet).4–2
- 2Caissie homered to left center (400 feet), Jiménez scored.4–1
- 1Buxton homered to left (382 feet).2–1
- 1Norby grounded into double play, third to second to first, Hicks scored, Stowers out at second, Lopez to third.2–0
- 1Lopez reached on infield single to first, Edwards scored, Hicks to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 54%
- ML MIA -130 / MIN +108
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 48.8%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -118
- MIN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.4 – 4.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −2 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +8 Elo | MIN 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–11 | Road vs home | 11–1016th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 147326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–26 | 20–22 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders | 23–17–2 | 23–15–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–4 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.