Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mack scored on error, Sanoja safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Mayo.3–4
- 8Alonso singled to center, Ward scored, Beavers to second.3–3
- 4O'Neill singled to right, Basallo scored.2–3
- 3Norby singled to left, Sanoja scored, Lopez to second.1–3
- 3Henderson singled to center, Mayo scored, Henderson to second, Jackson to third.1–2
- 1Hicks homered to right center (386 feet), Norby scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 53%
- ML BAL +104 / MIA -126
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 54.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +2 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +29 Elo | MIA 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 17th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 11–1116th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 24th of 301482 | Elo rating | 147725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–20 | 15–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–11–1 | 22–13–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–4 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.